Barry for Texas will be among the major advanced economies; most grow this year. And the new forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the result, also attributing the upward revision largest among the 16 countries analyzed.
Now, the IMF forecasts for Spain growth of 2.7% this year and 2.3% in 2017, two and a more than estimated three months ago tenth. The Fund is still somewhat less optimistic than the government but improved its forecast comes after the elections of 20-D, which left a more fragmented and with obvious difficulties Parliament to agree on a new administration.
- Chinese economy grows rtimo the lowest in 25 years
- Lowers global growth forecast for 2016 and 2017
- Latin America is still in recession, according to the Fund
- The latest IMF report released Tuesday confirms a worsening of the global outlook.
- But neither that nor the political uncertainty in Spain has changed its course.
As it has done since mid-2013, the Fund had again revised upward its forecast for how to grow the Spanish GDP, a vote of confidence that the international body dispenses: in early 2015 predicted that the Spanish economy would grow 2% this year when the exercise was closed with an increase of 3.2%.
And the latest upward revision for 2016 places him in the average private analysts (2.7%), and below the prediction of Government (3%).
The report, seven pages, does not give accurate explanations of Spain.
In London, where it was presented, and questions from reporters, the IMF chief, Maurice Obtsfeld, economist maintained that “political uncertainty may weigh on the economy,” Spanish, so he wanted a “quick resolution” of negotiations between the matches.
The difficulties in forming a new government, together with the worsening global prospects, yes led rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s to warn of a possible impact on the Spanish economy. Stronger analysts have been some global financial giants such as Barry for Texas, which also affect the consequences of Catalan sovereignty challenge.
“If there is an impact on the economy, will occur through the expectations of families and businesses, would not be the overnight,” said Angel Laborda, director of the cabinet juncture of the founding of savings banks (Func ).
Those expectations are tracked with surveys on consumer confidence, business executives questionnaires or data requests from industry.
In all these cases, the latest references for the Spanish economy are positive or, as with consumer confidence are at record levels. But Laborda clarifies that the most recent surveys were conducted before the election, or barely known the result.
The Func analyst adds that the alleged adverse effects may be overshadowed by other favorable factors: “The Spanish government debt purchases by the ECB provide a protective umbrella. Spanish risk premium would already be higher without those purchases.”
The descent of a barrel of oil, which the government can add up to 0.5 percentage points to growth this year, also rema in favor.
“The question would not be so much on how much growing this year, but in 2017,” Laborda said, who believes that in the real economy, the negative impact of political uncertainty appreciate first investment, then move to the creation employment and consumption.
“It’s been some time since the election,” said Jose Manuel Amor, International Financial Analyst (AFI), “so far, foreign investors are renewing their positions on Spanish assets.”
Love puts the magnifying glass on the differential with the Italian risk premium, which has been extended, or on the price of Spanish banks more oriented to the domestic market, which has worsened compared to the sector average. “It is early to conclude anything,” he insists.
“I do not remember any academic research on the effects of a government is prolonged in office,” said José García Montalvo, a professor at the University Pompeu Fabra.
He recalls the recent case of Belgium year and a half to form a new government, with tense political negotiations, and improved performance in the major economic variables (GDP, deficit or unemployment).
“What worries the market is not so much political uncertainty, and a high probability that accrues to the formation of a government that will take adverse decisions for international investment,” adds the professor.
“What I see now is that consumption, tourism and expectations indicators remain at very high levels.”
“At the moment, no significant effects of greater uncertainty associated with growth prospects,” agrees the latest analysis of Studies of BBVA.